Instability of water resources and management of a planned water system in non-sahelian West Africa
نویسندگان
چکیده
Having verified the decrease in surface water resources observed over the last twenty years in West Africa, changes planned for the Sassandra basin, Côte d'Ivoire, are described. The methods used to generate two hundred year data series, the basis of previous studies, are presented. The generated time series allow the development of long term working patterns for cases similar to the climatic conditions pertaining before and since the drought of the late 1960s. The results demonstrate a clear drop in the performance of the water system, related to climatic conditions experienced since the start of the drought. The conclusions drawn from the comparisons and analyses indicate that, if the present conditions were to persist in West Africa, surface water resources would no longer meet needs which were identified and planned for on the basis of data records presenting characteristics different from those currently observed. The frequency of failures would then become much greater, leading to a serious decline in the output of existing facilities. Modifications made to the operation of the Buyo reservoir are also analysed. Instabilité des ressources en eau et gestion d'un système d'eau aménagé en Afrique de l'Ouest non sahélienne Résumé Après avoir constaté la diminution des ressources en eau de surface observée depuis une vingtaine d'années en Afrique de l'Ouest, on décrit les aménagements projetés sur le bassin du Sassandra, zone d'étude retenue. Les méthodes utilisées pour générer les chroniques de deux cents ans d'apports aux différents ouvrages sont ensuite présentées. Ces chroniques permettent de procéder à des simulations de fonctionnement sur de longues durées dans des cas de figures correspondant aux contextes climatiques observés avant et depuis la sécheresse de la fin des années soixante. Les résultats montrent une nette baisse des performances du système d'eau en relation avec les conditions qui régnent depuis le début de la sécheresse. Les conclusions tirées de ces comparaisons et analyses mettent en évidence que, si la situation actuelle devait se prolonger en Afrique de l'Ouest, les ressources en eau de surface ne correspondraient plus à des besoins déterminés et planifiés à partir de chroniques de données présentant des caractéristiques différentes de celles observées aujourd'hui. Les fréquences de défaillances seraient alors beaucoup plus élevées, provoquant d'importantes chutes de production des aménagements réalisés. Les modifications apportées au fonctionnement du barrage de Buyo sont également analysées. Open for discussion until i October 1995 218 E. Servat & M. Sakho
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